I recently (10 minuted ago) read a post on this very blog about superdelegates possibly breaking for Obama. My friend Sam wrote a comment on the post that reads thus:

Hillary is going to win huge in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico, and probably take over the popular vote lead before June 3rd. Also, I read today that a compromise is being discussed that might seat Michigan and Florida’s delegates. If that goes through the Michigan pledged delegates would be split 54-46. I didn’t see details of the Florida plan, but I assume its similar. Anyway you split ‘em both candidates are closer to nomination, but a series of huge wins coupled with a popular vote victory might convince superdelegates to throw in with Hillary.

On a side note: No Democrat since Woodrow Wilson has won the presidency without winning West Virgina.

I left a comment regarding the last sentence that may have been overly snarky, and I apologize for that. To make up for it, I want to share this article I came across that I think vindicates at least part of the point that Sam was getting at. The article contains this graphic (which I find truly awesome) which illustrates the magnitude of the victory Hillary is looking at in West Virginia and Kentucky.

Check out the depth of support that Hillary has been getting in the Appalachian region. The entire stated of West Virginia and most of Kentucky falls within that slash of dark blue, which represents counties that Clinton won by at least 30%. The Clintonator (that’s really the best I could come up with) will likely make large steps towards overtaking Obama in these two states.

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As anyone who is paying attention knows, Sen. Clinton is expected to win today’s West Virginia primary by a large margin, but West Virginia is a small state with not that many delegates to be earned. Nevertheless, a huge loss might allow the Clinton campaign to prolong the Democratic primary process with their arguments of a superior candidacy based on support along racial lines, except that as I sit here typing this four superdelegates have declared their support for Sen. Obama. These recent endorsements include New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin and former Colorado governor and DNC chair Roy Romer. I will try to keep this updated throughout the day, but according to MSNBC, Obama has picked up 26 superdelegates in the past week which is almost as many pledged delegates as the 28 delegates that today’s WV primary will award. I assume that Obama is trying really hard to reach this mark so that his campaign will be able to use that talking point. I also wouldn’t be surprised if some of the superdelegates who have announced today saved their announcements/press conferences for today to help buffer the effect of a big Clinton win. As promised, more will be added later.

The Free Press is reporting that the Detroit City Council has voted upon a measure to begin a process attempting to remove their honorable mayor, Kwame Kilpatrick. The Council will begin to consider two methods of removal, one involving Governor Jennifer Granholm, the other a censure. If Kilpatrick is excused from his noble post, Ken Cockrel Jr. will take over as the city’s executive officer. It’s time for the City of Detroit to wipe this scandal off it’s brow and continue to try to thrive in a moment when perhaps it isn’t easiest. The first step for progress is the removal of perhaps one of the most shameful mayors America has ever seen.

Oliver Stone will direct “W,” the Lionsgate drama portraying President George W. Bush’s life story, set to release October 17. Stone promises the film will go beyond the President’s media image, an already controversial subject. Full story here.

I’m excited, but skeptical of this movie, although I’m sure I’ll fork over $7 to see it regardless of reviews. This film has the potential to be bold and provocative, but could easily be a dumbed-down biography.

The impending release of “W” reminds me of this mockumentary I watched last summer, called “Death Of A President,” which in turn reminds me of another mockumentary “The Confederate States of America.” The former follows a fake investigation of President Bush’s assassination, the latter a BBC-style look at the U.S. in an alternate universe in which the South won. They’re both better than “The Blair Witch Project,” I promise. Go rent.

So far, not that many details have been released, but Sen. Obama is going to be making two campaign stops in Michigan on Wednesday. One stop will occur somewhere in Macomb County and the other one will take place in Grand Rapids (how conveniently located for me). These were the details provided by the Grand Rapids ABC affiliate.

Grand Rapids - Democratic Presidential Candidate Barack Obama will hold an event in Grand Rapids on Wednesday, May 14th at 7 p.m.

The Kent County Democratic Party confirmed the appearance, which organizers plan to hold at the Van Andel Arena.

Our news partner, the Detroit Free Press is reporting, Obama will also hold a town hall meeting in Macomb County.

The Free Press is also reporting, the Obama campaign will be moving 12 full-time staff members to Michigan to build support among the state’s Democrats.

The two Michigan campaign stops are the first by the Illinois senator since last summer.

I don’t know about anyone else but I am excited. Sen. Obama will be in my backyard right before I go to D.C. for the summer. I don’t know if it can get any better than this. Barack will also be traveling to Florida later in what seems to be a plan to start gearing his strategy toward the general election.

Brainstorming on a possible campaign slogan. 

Commemorative resolutions are passed by Congress all the time. They express a non-controversial way to express support for various people or ideas. The House worked to pass one in support of Mother’s Day. Only the Republicans voted against it. The full story is here and the best part is below:

It was already shaping up to be a difficult year for congressional Republicans. Now, on the cusp of Mother’s Day, comes this: A majority of the House GOP has voted against motherhood.

On Wednesday afternoon, the House had just voted, 412 to 0, to pass H. Res. 1113, “Celebrating the role of mothers in the United States and supporting the goals and ideals of Mother’s Day,” when Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-Kan.), rose in protest.

“Mr. Speaker, I move to reconsider the vote,” he announced.

Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Fla.), who has two young daughters, moved to table Tiahrt’s request, setting up a revote. This time, 178 Republicans cast their votes against mothers.

It has long been the custom to compare a popular piece of legislation to motherhood and apple pie. Evidently, that is no longer the standard. Worse, Republicans are now confronted with a John Kerry-esque predicament: They actually voted for motherhood before they voted against it.

Republicans, unhappy with the Democratic majority, have been using such procedural tactics as this all week to bring the House to a standstill, but the assault on mothers may have gone too far. House Minority Leader John Boehner, asked yesterday to explain why he and 177 of his colleagues switched their votes, answered: “Oh, we just wanted to make sure that everyone was on record in support of Mother’s Day.”

By voting against it?

And throwin it up! 

I found this on Kanye’s blog… Count this as my Blog Digest for the day. I’m glad to see which way the Kanye Constituency is going. 

Have a fun Friday night everyone! 

SurveyUSA recently came out with a poll in which they asked respondents from all 50 states, “Who do you think is most responsible for rising gas prices?” The outcome of the poll surprised me:

It turns out that the plurality of Americans think that the chief culprit in rapidly rising gas prices is our very own Oilman-in-Chief, George W. Bush (he drinks your milkshake). While this would not have been my first guess - I personally suspect a combination of OPEC and rising demand - I am more than happy to see that many people think that the Bush administration is finding yet another way of damaging the bottom line of hard-working Americans. Since all John McCain seems to want to do about gas prices is give people a few months without the gas tax - a one-time benefit of about $30 - this would be a good issue to hammer him with in the fall.

Also, check out the second most popular answer: “U.S. Oil Companies.” The chances of John McCain actually confronting oil companies are zero to none. Between the two most popular answers, 69% of Americans think that rising gas prices are caused primarily by factors that would remain unchanged under a McCain administration. I think the Democratic candidate would do well to try and convince voters that if McCain is elected, both the executive branch and the oil companies would continue to drink our milkshake.

This whole primary debacle has really made me nostalgic for the slightly larger debacle that was Bush vs. Gore in 2000 (perhaps you recall?). Well, thanks to the geniuses at HBO, and Kevin Spacey, I get to relive it: dramatized! Directed by man who brought us Austin Powers (Jay Roach) and Danny Strong (”best-known as an actor in Buffy the Vampire Slayer”?), the made-for-HBO film “pulls back the veil on the headlines to explore the human drama surrounding the most controversial presidential election in U.S. history.” May 25 can’t get here soon enough.

It is a fact that secondhand smoke causes cancer and a wide variety of other health problems. These are health problems that have claimed countless lives and causes a massive strain on our nation’s strained healthcare system. As more and more states have taken action to ban smoking in public places and certain businesses - it is about time Michigan took action. 

Yesterday the Michigan State Senate passed a ban on smoking in all restaurants, bars, and casinos in the State of Michigan. The bill passed 25-12 with nine Republicans joining 16 Democrats to pass it. The Senate Majority Leader, Mike Bishop, opposed the ban, but conceded that the issue had too much public support to be ignored in committee. 

This is a huge leap forward for our state. Detractors argue that this sort legislation invades the rights of the individual and the rights of businesses to decide their own practices. Secondhand smoke extends past personal choice - when your smoke directly causes health problems for those around you it is no long an issue of individual choice. Smoking in your own house is your poor choice, but not a wrong choice. The act of forcing other patrons to take in your smog is wrong. 

Another argument against this ban harks on the economic impacts on businesses affected by this legislation. In other states and cities, such as New York City, the ban actually saw an INCREASE in business in the businesses affected. Consumers actually enjoy being able to dine in an area where they are not harassed by smoke. This is actually a good decision for the economy in Michigan. 

It is now time for the Michigan House to pass this legislation, where it faces some opposition from Democratic Representatives in the Detroit area. Make the right decision… Pass this legislation. 

We here at the University of Michigan College Democrats official blog try to maintain the highest levels of discourse and news analysis. We attempt to rigorously examine the news both locally and nationally and bring a high level of analysis that we have from our fine educations here at one of the premier public universities in America.

But sometimes, there’s a congressional district that’s shaped like a penis. And we realize that we are still but impetuous youth:

One of Sun Tzu’s most famous quotes is “Know thy enemy”. What this means is simple. I support Barack Obama. However, it is necessary to understand the psyche and driving motivations of Republicans and conservative thinkers in order to beat them around election time. The same is true during primary season where in order to defeat an opponent, especially one as impressive as Hillary Clinton, it becomes necessary to understand where they are coming from and their strong motivating forces.

First of all, this almost goes without saying, Hillary Clinton is a truly unique and historical candidate. A great diary from Daily Kos makes that case for her here and is one of the best overall views of her that I have seen in a while. I have always admired her strength and policymaking skills and think that she would be an effective president.

Another key reason is the real subject of this entry and needs to be explained. It comes from Sam’s comment here

Fuck losing elections.

Many Clinton supporters have a deep and fundamental belief that Hillary Clinton is far more electable and is the only one who can defeat John McCain. Understanding this is important to understanding several things:

1. Stubbornness in what seems to be overwhelming odds: Remember how we all felt after 2004? It was the feeling where you wondered why so much of the country didn’t see what seemed easily apparent to you. There are many people who just can’t understand why we Obama supporters don’t see that he can’t win. This helps justify a changing metric or giving superdelegates an overwhelming role in the nomination battle.

2. Looking to specific states and demographics: The fact that Clinton won 8/12 closest states from the 2004 election. She has also clearly won in the biggest battleground states from 2000 and 2004 with Florida and Ohio and the next biggest close state from both years with Pennsylvania. This is a massive advantage which makes her more electable. She has accomplished this by winning among white working class Catholic voters. Though many of the recent points from her campaign have put this in a highly inartful manner, one can see winning this demographic as key for many states, like Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan for the general.

These two points combine to explain a great deal of what is going on in the Democratic Primary campaign and what has been going on for a while. I don’t really agree with these points overall, but it is necessary to understand them in order to understand how many Clinton supporters feel. In a world where Barack Obama simply can’t win, it is worth doing almost anything to support Senator Clinton in order to save the Democratic Party.

This is an amazing new website to help show the real cost of the War in Iraq. It cost 3 trillion dollars. That’s a lot of money. It lets you shop for things ranging from Universal Health Care in America to a Secret Island Fortress (A bargain at only 15 million!). It’s just a really great way to show the immense amount of money we have wasted in Iraq and the opportunity cost of what we did.

“At the end of the day there’s going to be a nominee.  We expect it’s going to be Senator Clinton.”

- Howard Wolfson on MSNBC

He quickly changed the subject to West Virginia, which he criticized Obama for largely ignoring:

“You can’t write off West Virginia in terms of a general election.  [What Obama is doing] is just baffling.”

Yeah, Howie.  That’s what’s “baffling” here.